Post-Market Report — Closing Bell Report
🔔 Closing Bell — 30-Second Read
- NVDA led a tech-driven rip. Nasdaq closed +1.57% and the S&P 500 +0.72%. Ten of eleven sectors finished red — but Technology surged +3.16%, carrying the tape. One sector up, ten down: the narrowness tells you this was an earnings-driven event, not broad risk appetite.
- The headline of the session: NVDA + CRM + CRWD triple-beat. Nvidia reported Q2 FY2027 EPS of $2.22 vs. $2.14 est. (+3.8%), revenue $96.2 B vs. $94.0 B est. Salesforce posted a massive 78.4% EPS surprise ($5.90 actual vs. $3.31 est.). CrowdStrike beat modestly (+3.8%). All three stocks surged into the close and remain elevated after hours.
- ⚠ Jackson Hole overhang. KC Fed's Schmid called inflation "stubborn and sticky" and stopped just short of calling for a hike. Kalshi prediction markets put a 70% chance the Fed holds at the September meeting — but a 30% chance of a hike is not negligible. Fed Chair Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole tomorrow; markets expect no cut language.
- Confidence: 7/10. The big story is clear — AI earnings ignited tech. The uncertainty is whether Jackson Hole tomorrow creates a macro reversal. One Warsh line on rates reshuffles the deck.
- Biggest risk tomorrow: Warsh mentions "bond market" or "restrictive" — Kalshi sees very low odds, but the tail is real. VIX fell to 14.51 (down 4.6%), suggesting complacency; any hawkish surprise hits an under-hedged tape.
How to read: each dial is the estimated chance of an up move next session for that index, derived from options positioning (put/call & implied vol). A lean, not a prediction; manage risk. Fear & Greed shows market mood.
▲ Dials show a synthesized directional bias for the next session on a -100 (extreme bearish) → +100 (extreme bullish) scale (trend, momentum, price-vs-MA, dampened by volatility). A lean, not a prediction.
Technical read: The S&P 500 finished above both its 20-DMA (7,701) and 50-DMA (7,558) with RSI at 46.9 — room to run but not overbought. Nasdaq similarly healthy above both moving averages. The Dow barely held its 20-DMA and the Russell lagged — confirming the rally was concentrated in mega-cap tech. Key S&P levels to watch: support 7,399 / resistance 7,931.
🚀 THE HEADLINE: NVDA demolished expectations
NVDA reported Q2 FY2027 (reported Aug 26 AMC, trading on this today): EPS $2.22 actual vs. $2.14 est. — a +3.8% beat. Revenue $96.2 B vs. $94.0 B est. — a +2.4% beat. Datacenter AI demand remains insatiable. Dark pool prints showed 500-share blocks on NVDA in the $226-$227 range post-close. The readthrough: AI capex cycle is not slowing.
Verified reported results — both sources confirmed. EPS surprise figures shown.
| Symbol | When | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise | Rev Est. | Rev Actual | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DG | Today BMO | $2.07 | $2.23 | +7.8% | $11.53 B | $11.29 B | Beat EPS Rev Miss |
| BBY | Today BMO | $1.39 | $1.47 | +5.5% | $9.69 B | $9.78 B | Beat Both |
| DLTR | Today BMO | $1.16 | $2.70 | +131.9% | $4.96 B | $4.89 B | Massive EPS Beat Rev Miss |
| BURL | Today BMO | $2.22 | $2.96 | +33.0% | $3.08 B | $3.00 B | EPS Beat Rev Miss |
| CSIQ | Today BMO | -$0.11 | -$1.40 | -1172.7% | $1.16 B | $1.21 B | EPS Miss Rev Beat |
| HRL | Today BMO | $0.36 | $0.37 | +3.7% | $3.07 B | $2.96 B | EPS Beat Rev Miss |
| TITN | Today BMO | -$0.37 | -$0.40 | -8.2% | $493 M | $496 M | EPS Miss Rev Beat |
| HQY | Today BMO | $1.20 | $1.24 | +2.9% | $353 M | $351 M | EPS Beat |
| ADSK | Today AMC | $3.19 | $3.30 | +3.6% | $2.05 B | $2.05 B | EPS Beat |
| RBRK | Today AMC | $0.04 | $0.20 | +397.5% | $404 M | $427 M | Massive Beat Both |
| NVDA | Aug 26 AMC | $2.14 | $2.22 | +3.8% | $94.0 B | $96.2 B | Beat Both |
| CRM | Aug 26 AMC | $3.31 | $5.90 | +78.4% | $11.43 B | $11.35 B | Massive EPS Beat |
| CRWD | Aug 26 AMC | $0.30 | $0.31 | +3.8% | $1.47 B | $1.47 B | Beat Both |
| OKTA | Aug 26 AMC | $0.99 | $1.05 | +6.4% | $811 M | $805 M | EPS Beat Rev Miss |
| SNPS | Aug 26 AMC | $3.74 | $3.91 | +4.6% | $2.49 B | $2.48 B | EPS Beat |
| KSS | Aug 26 BMO | $0.58 | $0.31 | -46.5% | $3.38 B | $3.32 B | Miss Both |
| SJM | Aug 26 BMO | $2.24 | $3.24 | +44.7% | $2.15 B | $2.22 B | Beat Both |
| BBWI | Aug 26 BMO | $0.25 | $0.62 | +150.2% | $1.53 B | $1.51 B | Massive EPS Beat |
⚠ Unconfirmed — Verify Before Trading
The following names had a conflict between data sources (one shows reported, the other shows upcoming). No actuals are shown. Verify on your platform before acting: GAP, ULTA, MRVL, WDAY. Additionally, AFRM, ESTC are scheduled to report after tonight's close.
Readthrough
The overarching signal: enterprise software and AI infrastructure spending is accelerating, not decelerating. NVDA, CRM, CRWD, RBRK, and OKTA all beat. Dollar Tree's (DLTR) 131% EPS beat was optical (cost cuts + one-time items) rather than demand recovery — don't read it as a consumer strength signal. Canadian Solar's (CSIQ) ugly EPS miss reinforces the pressure on solar from cheaper Chinese competition and U.S. tariff uncertainty.
🛢️ Iran War / Oil
Iran–Oman ceasefire talks are underway, but Reuters reports the conflict has reached "a costly stalemate" after six months. WTI crude jumped +1.71% to $83.64 today. Trump is set to meet with refiners and fuel retailers as gas prices climb ahead of midterms. Why it matters for traders: Elevated oil is a macro headwind (inflation), supports energy names, but the stalemate — not resolution — keeps risk elevated. OPEC+ is losing market sway as China gains influence in the conflict region.
🌐 Trade / Tariffs
Canada excluded U.S. seafood from its retaliatory tariff list — a small de-escalation. Visa and Mastercard launched international card payments in Syria after the U.S. lifted its terrorism designation — a niche opening but signals a geopolitical thaw in that pocket. Why it matters: Marginal positive for payment networks; no major equity catalyst but worth noting for V/MA watchers.
🏦 Jackson Hole
The annual Jackson Hole Symposium continues. KC Fed's Schmid said inflation is "stubborn and sticky" and the policy rate is "not restrictive" — stopping just short of calling for a hike. Prediction markets on Kalshi give very low odds that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will mention "bond market" or "rate cut" tomorrow. Why it matters: Warsh's speech is tomorrow's single biggest market event. Any hawkish language — especially around the bond market — could reverse today's tech gains quickly. This is the one thing that could undo the NVDA/CRM-driven euphoria.
One-line implication: The macro cocktail is mixed — rates are elevated and not falling (hawkish Fed backdrop), oil is rising (geopolitical premium + inflation), but gold, silver, and BTC are all catching bids simultaneously (risk-on + safe-haven demand co-existing). VIX at a near 52-week low suggests traders are not hedged for tomorrow's Jackson Hole event risk.
✅ What Worked
- Technology (+3.16%) — NVDA, CRM, CRWD triple-beat ignited a sector-wide squeeze. AI narrative is intact; institutional money rotated into the sector aggressively.
- OKTA (+28.6%) — New AI identity security products drove 30% of bookings from AI deals. Revenue miss was forgiven given guidance optimism.
- Rubrik (RBRK) — +397% EPS surprise with a revenue beat. Cybersecurity spending not slowing.
- Gold/Silver — Geopolitical premium + rate-cut hope combo bid precious metals.
- Natural Gas — Tighter-than-expected EIA storage build.
❌ What Didn't
- Consumer Staples (-1.38%), Consumer Discretionary (-1.09%), Comm Services (-1.07%) — defensive and yield-sensitive names sold off as money moved to tech.
- Health Care (-1.13%) — Broad sector rotation away from defensives.
- KSS (Kohl's) — EPS miss of -46.5% reflects continued department-store structural decline.
- CSIQ (Canadian Solar) — EPS miss of -1,173%. Oversupply + tariff uncertainty crushing margins.
- Utilities/Real Estate — Rate-sensitive sectors punished by 4.67% 10-year yield.
Jackson Hole & September Meeting Odds
No FOMC decision today. The Jackson Hole Symposium is active — Fed Chair Warsh speaks tomorrow. KC Fed's Schmid today: inflation is "stubborn and sticky," rates are not restrictive. He stopped just short of explicitly calling for a hike — but that's a hawkish lean.
Kalshi markets for September 16, 2026 meeting:
Takeaway: The base case is a hold, but a 30% implied probability of a hike is real tail risk — especially if Warsh adopts Schmid-like language tomorrow. No CME FedWatch data in today's packet. Kalshi is the operative read. The single number to watch tomorrow: does Warsh say "not restrictive"? If yes, expect a rate spike and a growth-stock selloff.
Today: 1 advancer, 10 decliners. Narrowest breadth of the week — this was an AI/tech event, not a market rally.
1-day % change shown. 1-month context in parentheses.
Optionable names only. Each listed on its own line.
▲ Day-Session Gainers
▼ Day-Session Losers
After-Hours
▲ After-Hours Activity
Notable Dark Pool (AH)
Open-market transactions prioritized (Form 144 & Form 4). Non-open-market (awards, exercises) noted where significant.
10b5-1 plans are pre-scheduled and carry less signal weight. Open-market buys at CODI and INDV are the most constructive signals today.
All data from packet. Universe note: IV rank is a scanned set of 40 liquid optionable names — not the full market.
a) IV Rank — Elevated vs. Low
Elevated IV (options expensive — sell premium or buy spreads)
CRM is the standout — post-earnings vol crush makes selling elevated premium (e.g., covered calls, credit spreads) worth considering for existing holders.
Low IV (options cheap — favorable for buying calls/puts)
MU at the 10th percentile: cheap options ahead of what is a pivotal macro period for semis. CAT and BA at historically low vol — directional options are inexpensive if you have a view.
b) Unusual Volume & Open Interest — Top Contracts
| Chain | Type | Strike | Expiry | Volume | OI | Vol/OI | Premium |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | Call | $771 | 8/27 | 827,493 | 5,376 | 153.9× | $44.3 M |
| SPY | Call | $770 | 8/27 | 768,923 | 7,702 | 99.8× | $64.9 M |
| SPY | Put | $770 | 8/27 | 724,323 | 984 | 736× | $45.0 M |
| NVDA | Call | $230 | 8/28 | 684,267 | 210,864 | 3.25× | $86.0 M |
| NVDA | Call | $225 | 8/28 | 297,644 | 70,693 | 4.21× | $89.9 M |
| NVDA | Call | $200 | 1/15/27 | 195,408 | 84,844 | 2.3× | $777 M |
| IWM | Put | $285 | 9/18 | 116,257 | 62,808 | 0.65× | $1.04 M |
| QQQ | Put | $725 | 2/19/27 | 159 | 253 | 0.63× | $430 K |
| PCG | Call | $20 | 10/16 | 247,197 | 63,024 | 3.92× | $7.2 M |
Key observation: The massive NVDA Jan 2027 $200 call block — $777 M in premium — is institutional-scale conviction on NVDA remaining elevated well into 2027. This is the single largest premium contract in today's data. The SPY expiration day calls ($770–$772) are gamma-day (0DTE) activity — volatility, not directional conviction. The IWM put activity ($285–$287 strikes, Sep–Oct expiry) represents a systematic hedge against small-cap weakness.
c) Busiest Strikes by Name
NVDA — Top by Volume (8/28 expiry)
$230C: 684K contracts · $225C: 298K · $225P: 266K · $227.50C: 266K · $240C: 246K
By OI: $230C (210K OI) · $240C (175K) · $180P Jan27 (147K)
Call/put volume is overwhelmingly call-heavy. Market is positioned for continued upside through this week's expiry.
SPY — Top by Volume (today's expiry)
$771C: 827K · $770C: 769K · $770P: 724K · $772C: 710K · $769P: 563K
By OI (big structural): Sep18 $520P (210K OI) · Sep18 $525P (209K OI) · Sep30 $800C (65K OI)
The structural SPY OI shows large hedges at the $520–$525 level for September — a long way down, but they exist.
IWM — Whale Flow
Repeated multi-thousand-contract blocks on IWM Sep18 $285–$287 puts. Total size across alerts: 4,000–9,000 contracts. Ask-side premium (opening buys) confirmed. This is a significant put hedge on small-cap weakness.
QQQ — Whale Flow
Feb 2027 $725 put: 159 contracts at $39.50 — small size but a long-dated, deep hedge. Sep18 $740 call repetitive buying. SPXW $7,850 Nov20 call block: $16.7 M premium — someone is buying upside on a market melt-up scenario.
d) Whale Flow: Sweeps, Blocks, Net Premium, Dark Pool
Market Tide (Net Call vs. Put Premium, End of Day)
By 16:00 ET, the market tide showed net call premium of ~$397 M vs. net put premium of ~-$162 M — a strongly bullish daily close on flow. Call buyers dominated all day. The put premium expanded in the final 30 minutes (likely hedging overnight), but the day-long trend was firmly bullish.
SPY Options Volume: 5.14 M calls vs. 5.31 M puts — puts slightly outnumbered calls on raw count (hedgers), but net premium was call-heavy (bullish directional money). Put/call (OI): 13.7 M put OI vs. 5.6 M call OI — large structural hedge book remains in place.
NVDA: 7.4 M calls vs. 5.76 M puts today — a strongly call-dominated flow day consistent with the earnings reaction.
Top Dark Pool Prints (Post-Market, Select)
e) GEX (Gamma Exposure) & Put/Call by Name
SPY GEX — Key Strikes
Largest positive GEX: $770 strike (call gamma OI 3.7 B, put gamma OI -1.5 B net). Market makers were net long gamma at $770, acting as a gravitational pull for today's tape — which closed at $771.10. This is textbook GEX pin behavior.
Negative GEX zone below $760: Below that level, market makers flip short gamma and can amplify moves down. Watch $760 as the acceleration trigger if the tape reverses.
NVDA Put/Call & GEX
Options volume: Call-heavy (684K call vs. 266K put on the $230/$225 strikes). Net positive momentum from options market is supportive of the stock into tomorrow's expiry.
Caution: The $230 strike has 210K OI — that's the gamma pin level for Friday's 8/28 expiry. If NVDA is near $228–$232 at tomorrow's close, dealers will dampen movement. A clean move above $232 or below $225 breaks the pin and could accelerate.
Read: A Fear & Greed score of 58 (Greed) combined with VIX near its 52-week low is a complacency warning. Markets are priced for perfection on the earnings front — which today's tape delivered. But VIX at 14.51 means protective puts are historically cheap. Tomorrow's Warsh speech is a known binary event that is not reflected in current volatility pricing. If you are long tech heading into Jackson Hole, consider hedging with cheap SPY puts or trimming into this strength.
⚠ The Dominant Risk: Fed Chair Warsh at Jackson Hole
This is the single event that overrides everything else tomorrow. Kalshi puts a 70% chance on hold and 30% on hike. If Warsh sounds like Schmid (inflation "not restrictive," potential for hike) — expect rates to spike, tech to sell off, and the NVDA-driven gains to partially reverse. If Warsh is neutral or vague — the path of least resistance is continuation. He is unlikely to signal cuts.
Key Economic Events Tomorrow (Aug 28)
| Time (ET) | Event | Prior | Est. | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All day | Jackson Hole Symposium (Day 3) — Fed Chair Warsh speaks | — | — | HIGH |
| ~9:45 ET | Chicago PMI (Aug) | 57.6 | 57.0 | MED |
| ~10:00 ET | Michigan 1-Yr Inflation Expectations (Aug) | 4.2% | 4.3% | MED |
| 4:00 PM | 30-Year Mortgage Rate (weekly) | 6.65% | — | LOW |
| 5:30 PM | CFTC Commitment of Traders Reports | — | — | LOW |
Earnings Reporting Tomorrow (Before Open)
No major names confirmed before open tomorrow that are in this packet. Tonight's key reports: AFRM, ESTC, MRVL, WDAY (all tonight AMC — some unconfirmed, verify). Rubrik (RBRK) already reported.
Key Levels & Next-Session Lean
Bull Case Tomorrow
Warsh is noncommittal or vague at Jackson Hole. MRVL/WDAY/ULTA beat expectations tonight. NVDA holds above $225. Tech sector momentum continues into a long weekend. Target: SPX challenges 7,798 (swing high).
Bear Case Tomorrow
Warsh echoes Schmid's hawkish tone. 10-year yield spikes above 4.75%. Technology gives back 1–2%. NVDA breaks below the $225 GEX support, triggering dealer short gamma. SPX tests 7,600 quickly.
Today's session handed you a gift if you were positioned in AI going into NVDA earnings — and the market spent all day rewarding that conviction. Nvidia, Salesforce, and CrowdStrike all delivered. That's not coincidence; that's the AI capex cycle printing receipts. The market is trying to tell you something: enterprise tech spending isn't slowing.
Here's what I want you to understand about the setup: ten out of eleven sectors closed red today. This rally was concentrated, not broad. That's actually normal for this kind of earnings-driven move — money rotates fast and narrow. It does not mean the rally is fake. But it does mean you need to be thoughtful. Don't chase. Let the trade come to you.
The one thing that changes everything tomorrow is Warsh. VIX at 14.51 is telling you the market is not afraid. Sometimes that's right. Sometimes that's exactly when you get caught leaning the wrong way. If you're sitting on tech profits from today, consider what your plan is if Jackson Hole goes hawkish. You don't have to sell — but know your exit. Protect capital before chasing reward. Be the house, not the gambler.
The one thing to watch: Does Fed Chair Warsh use the phrase "not restrictive" or mention the bond market tomorrow? If yes — get flat or hedged quickly. If he keeps it vague — the path of least resistance is higher into the weekend.
— Michael Wade · MWTC Trade Club · August 27, 2026
What today means · What to watch overnight · 3 takeaways
NVDA, CRM, CRWD, RBRK, OKTA — five consecutive beats in AI/cybersecurity/cloud. The consensus concern that AI capex would slow is not showing up in these numbers. The AI trade is fundamentally backed.
VIX at 14.51 with a 30% implied probability of a September hike is a mismatch. The market is under-hedged for what Warsh could say tomorrow. Watch the 10-year yield; above 4.75% and SPX will feel it. Overnight, track futures and any pre-market Warsh comments or leaks.
Watch for MRVL earnings (dark pool was positioning), WDAY, and ULTA results tonight. Gold and silver strength plus Bitcoin near its 52-week high signal institutional hedging across asset classes simultaneously — a "risk-on and hedge-on" posture. Dark pool gold ETF prints (GLDM/IAU ~$18 M combined) were notable. The ORLY $49 M dark pool print suggests someone is rotating into defensive consumer names.
Trade smart. Manage risk. Let the probabilities work for you.
- Post-Market Edition
- This report covers the session that just closed and sets up the next session. Prices and technicals are end-of-day snapshots — verify live prices before any trade.
- Earnings verification
- All actuals shown are from dual-source confirmed rows (Finnhub + FMP both agree). "Unconfirmed" names show no actuals and carry a verify note.
- Options IV Rank
- Scanned across 40 liquid optionable names — this is not a full-market screen. Percentile = where current IV sits vs. the past year's range for that ticker.
- Dark pool prints
- Off-exchange block trades; direction is not always determinable. Size and price relative to NBBO provide context but not certainty.
- GEX (Gamma Exposure)
- Dealer hedging flows derived from open interest. Positive GEX = dealers long gamma = dampening effect on moves near that strike. Negative GEX = dealers short gamma = amplifying effect.
- Color language
- Green = bullish · Red = bearish · Orange = caution/watch · Grey = neutral