Post-Market Report — Closing Bell Report
🔔 Closing Bell — 30-Second Read
- Bias: Mildly bullish across the board. All four major indices closed green, led by Nasdaq (+0.66%) with small-caps (+0.50%) punching above their weight. Confidence: 6/10 — modest gains, put-heavy options flow, and a big event (NVDA after the close tomorrow) keeps everyone cautious.
- Today's winner: Technology (XLK +0.94%) and Communication Services (XLC +0.77%) led the tape. Gold hit a new multi-month peak — risk-on and safe-haven running together is a mixed signal worth noting.
- Today's loser: Energy (XLE −1.66%) crushed by a −5.47% collapse in WTI crude. Consumer Staples (XLP −1.06%) and Industrials (XLI −0.34%) were the other drags.
- Biggest story: SMTC and NCNO beat after the close tonight. HEI results are unconfirmed — sources conflict, verify before acting. Tomorrow's tape belongs to NVDA (reports after close Wed) — the AI bellwether that sets the mood for everything tech-related.
- What tomorrow hinges on: Core PCE + Durable Goods at 8:30 ET and the final setup into NVDA earnings. A hot PCE print could roll tech quickly; a cool one keeps the bid alive.
How to read: each dial is the estimated chance of an up move next session for that index, derived from options positioning (put/call & implied vol). A lean, not a prediction; manage risk. Fear & Greed shows market mood.
▲ Dials show a synthesized directional bias for the next session on a -100 (extreme bearish) → +100 (extreme bullish) scale (trend, momentum, price-vs-MA, dampened by volatility). A lean, not a prediction.
Where they finished vs. key levels: SPX closed comfortably above both its 20- and 50-day moving averages — a constructive setup. Nasdaq is the only index still sitting a hair below its 20-DMA, reflecting the lingering caution before NVDA. The Dow's RSI at 37.5 is the most oversold of the group — that's a potential catch-up trade if macro cooperates. Small-caps held the 20-DMA precisely, which matters: a close below 3,009 Wednesday would be a warning shot for the risk appetite story.
✅ Verified Reports (Two-Source Confirmed)
Readthrough: The SMTC and NCNO beats are genuinely positive for the mid-cap tech/fintech complex. SMTC beating by 14.5% signals semiconductor demand staying resilient — a forward tailwind for the broader chip space (and a constructive data point ahead of NVDA). NCNO's EPS beat with a slight revenue miss is the familiar SaaS pattern — the market will watch guidance. ELMD is a small-cap medical device beat, less market-moving. SLQT's revenue miss is a company-specific story but worth watching as a pulse on insurance distribution.
⚠ Unconfirmed — Verify Before Acting
The following names are listed as reporting today but have source conflicts — one data feed says reported, the other says upcoming, or dates disagree between Finnhub and FMP. Do not trade actuals on these until you verify on your platform.
- HEI (HEICO) — reported-status conflict; actuals appear in one feed but not confirmed in second source. Verify on platform.
- INTU (Intuit) — reported-status conflict; one source says upcoming, one says reported. Verify.
- ZM (Zoom) — same conflict. Do not assume actuals until confirmed.
- BOX — same conflict. Verify before acting.
- KSS, JKS, WSM, ANF, TIGR, BURL — date conflicts between sources (one says Aug 25, other says Aug 26). Do not state a report date without platform verification.
🤖 OpenAI bans Russian ChatGPT accounts in covert influence campaign
OpenAI confirmed it blocked accounts tied to a Russian misinformation operation, illustrating how AI can be weaponized for influence campaigns. Why it matters for traders: Regulatory risk for AI platforms is creeping higher. Watch for any congressional reaction that could affect AI-adjacent names.
🥇 Gold steadies after hitting multi-month peak ahead of U.S. inflation data
Gold (GC) touched $4,722/oz — a 3-month+ high — then pulled back slightly as traders positioned ahead of Wednesday's PCE print. Why it matters: Gold running alongside equities is unusual and signals genuine safe-haven demand, not just risk-on. If PCE comes hot, gold could catch another bid while stocks stumble.
📊 Cramer: Watch long-term Treasury yields
Jim Cramer flagged surging long-term Treasury yields driven by inflation fears, government borrowing, and AI-related corporate debt issuance as the key macro risk for equity investors. Why it matters: The 10-year closed at 4.64%, down 7bps today — a one-day respite. Sustained yield pressure remains the single biggest headwind for growth stocks.
🛢️ U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve hits lowest level since 1982
SPR stocks fell 3.7 million barrels — a structural supply concern. Why it matters: With WTI already down 5.47% today to $80.36, this creates conflicting signals: weak near-term demand (price decline) vs. thin strategic cushion (long-term vulnerability). Energy traders: watch API inventory data tonight.
One-line implication: Bonds caught a bid (yields lower), gold is running hot, crude is falling hard, VIX is quiet. That's a market that's risk-on in equities and tech, defensive in metals, and pricing in some demand softness via crude. The 10-year at 4.64% is still elevated enough to keep pressure on rate-sensitive sectors — but today's dip gives the bulls a day of breathing room before tomorrow's PCE.
Bullish Drivers Today
- SMTC / NCNO earnings beats after close — positive tone for mid-cap tech and SaaS names heading into Wednesday.
- 10-year yield dipped 7bps — rate relief lifted growth and tech. Nasdaq led with +0.66%.
- Gold at multi-month highs — institutional money hedging inflation; supports commodity-adjacent plays.
- Consumer Confidence (Aug) printed 89.4 vs. 90.3 estimate — a slight miss, but not a disaster. Market absorbed it.
- Copper +1.67% to $6.71 (52-week high!) — industrial demand signal that China exposure may be improving.
- M2 Money Supply (July) ticked to $23.22T — liquidity still present in the system.
Bearish Drivers Today
- WTI crude −5.47% to $80.36 — demand fear signal; crushed XLE (−1.66%) and weighed on macro sentiment.
- New Home Sales (July) collapsed −10.5% vs. −1.3% estimate — far worse than expected. Housing demand is deteriorating.
- Richmond Fed Services Index −8 vs. −1 estimate — notable regional weakness in services.
- Put premium dominated options flow late session — net put premium exceeded net call premium in the market-tide data as the session wound down. Whales were buying protection.
- SLQT revenue miss (before open) — revenue $321.7M vs. $360.5M estimate — big shortfall in insurance distribution channel.
- SPR at lowest level since 1982 — structural energy vulnerability building quietly.
September 2026 FOMC — Kalshi Prediction Markets
The market-implied odds heading into the September 16 meeting are unambiguous right now: traders are pricing a hold as the dominant scenario. Here's what Kalshi shows:
What this means for you: The base case is a hold, but a 32% hike probability is not nothing. Tomorrow's Core PCE (est. +0.2% MoM) is the single most important data point between now and that meeting. A hot print could push hike odds above 40% and rattle rate-sensitive sectors. A cool print firms the hold view and likely gives growth stocks another lift. Fed watcher note: Fed's Barkin spoke today — no data in the packet suggesting he moved the needle.
One-day and one-month change for all 11 SPDR sector ETFs. Leaders and laggards ranked by today's performance.
Leaders: Technology (XLK +0.94%) and Communication Services (XLC +0.77%) carried the day — AI/mega-cap growth doing the heavy lifting. Health Care (XLV +0.34%) continued its defensive bid. Laggards: Energy (XLE −1.66%) crushed by crude collapse. Consumer Staples (XLP −1.06%) — odd bear when equities are rising, signals defensive rotation unwinding. Industrials (XLI −0.34%) quiet drag. One-month perspective: Energy is still the top one-month performer (+7.8%), but today's crude flush is a warning.
Day Session — Gainers
Day Session — Losers
| Ticker | Firm | Action | Rating / Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| DKS | Loop Capital | Hold | PT cut to $140 from $235 — earnings disaster reaction |
| DKS | Wells Fargo | Overweight | PT cut to $185 from $240 — maintaining Overweight on the dip |
| NKE | Jefferies | Buy | DKS selloff in sympathy looks like an entry point for Nike |
| BNS | TD Securities | Upgrade | Hold → Buy. Scotiabank upgrade — constructive on Canadian banks |
| BNS | Raymond James | Outperform | PT raised to C$139 from C$137 |
| RBRK | Scotiabank | Outperform | PT raised to $114 from $95 — cybersecurity strength |
| NBIS | Goldman Sachs | Buy | PT raised to $328 from $286 — Nebius AI infrastructure bull |
| WDS | Macquarie | Downgrade | Outperform → Neutral. Woodside Energy cut — crude weakness |
| GSK | Morgan Stanley | Underweight | PT raised to 1,900 GBp from 1,750 — still Underweight |
| AAPL | Evercore ISI | Outperform | Reiteration — Apple conviction maintained |
Key takeaways: DKS getting hammered by analysts post-print, but Wells Fargo holding Overweight. NKE worth watching — Jefferies calling the sympathy dip a buy. RBRK / NBIS upgrades signal institutional conviction in cybersecurity and AI infra.
| Ticker | Insider / Role | Action | Shares · Price · Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMT | Kalathur Rajesh — Director | BUY (Open Market) | 2,829 shares @ $177 · Aug 21 — Director buying on the open market is a signal worth noting. |
| THC | Sutaria Saumya — CEO & Director | SELL (Open Market) | 50,000 shares @ $274.02 · Aug 25 — CEO monetizing. Large sale in dollar terms (~$13.7M). |
| NGL | Krimbill Michael — CEO & Director | SELL (Open Market) | 300,000 shares @ $17.00 · Aug 25 — CEO selling 300K shares is sizable relative to the stock's market cap ($2B). |
| HST | Lentz Michael — EVP Development | SELL (Open Market) | 56,757 shares @ $23.26 · Aug 21 — Large exec sale in host hotels. |
| UAL | Nocella Andrew — EVP Chief Commercial | SELL (Form 144) | 5,000 shares @ $117 · Aug 25 — Planned sale noted. |
Most notable: AMT director open-market buy is the cleanest insider bullish signal of the batch. THC and NGL CEO sales are large enough in dollar terms to flag — not automatic bearish signals, but worth context-checking against recent price action and any upcoming catalysts.
Universe note: IV rank data covers a scanned set of 40 liquid optionable names — not the full market. Unusual contract data sourced from UW packet.
📈 Elevated IV (Expensive Options)
Implied volatility (IV — the option market's implied future price range) is relatively high in these names. Selling premium or defined-risk spreads may be favored over buying outright.
- CRM — IV Percentile 87.3% · Highest in the scan. Earnings tomorrow AMC.
- NVDA — IV Percentile 76.3% · Pre-earnings vol build. Reports tomorrow AMC.
- ADBE — IV Percentile 72.8%
- XLE — IV Percentile 59.1% · Crude crash driving energy vol higher.
- MSTR — IV Percentile 56.0% · Bitcoin correlation keeping premium elevated.
- QCOM — 47.1% · NFLX — 44.1% · SMCI — 42.7% · TLT — 40.8% · META — 38.2%
📉 Low IV (Cheap Options)
IV is historically compressed in these names. Buying options or defined-risk debit spreads may offer better risk/reward than usual.
- MU — IV Percentile 9.8% · Cheapest options in the scan.
- LLY — 10.0% · BA — 10.9%
- JPM — 12.9% · IWM — 12.9%
- SMH — 13.9% · COST — 14.1%
- MSFT — 15.1% · AMZN — 15.7% · AMD — 15.8%
🐋 Unusual Volume & Open Interest
These contracts had meaningfully elevated volume-to-open-interest ratios (vol/OI) — a sign of fresh positioning, not just existing interest being traded around.
| Ticker | Strike / Expiry / Type | Volume | OI | Vol/OI | Premium ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $765P Aug 25 | 999,312 | 4,800 | 208.19× | $52.2M |
| QQQ | $711C Aug 25 | 757,952 | 3,078 | 246.25× | $44.5M |
| QQQ | $709P Aug 25 | 537,900 | 2,196 | 244.95× | $32.4M |
| SPY | $766P Aug 25 | 456,770 | 2,066 | 221.09× | $44.2M |
| NVDA | $230C Aug 28 | 185,062 | 78,303 | 2.36× | $23.6M |
| NVDA | $240C Aug 28 | 151,332 | 60,801 | 2.49× | $6.1M |
| TSLA | $355C Aug 26 | 159,641 | 3,152 | 50.65× | $46.1M |
| IWM | $285P Sep 18 | 48,271 | 94,356 | 0.51× | $153K |
| EWZ | $45C Nov 20 | 669,588 | 17,517 | 38.23× | $26.4M |
Key reads: The SPY and QQQ expiry-day contracts (Aug 25) were massive — over 200× Vol/OI on multiple strikes. That's pinning activity around the 765–766 SPY level. The NVDA Aug 28 calls ($230 and $240 strikes) are genuinely notable — 185K and 151K contracts on open interest of 78K and 61K respectively. Traders are positioning for a move higher post-earnings. TSLA saw 50× vol/OI on the $355 call — elevated speculative positioning for tomorrow. The EWZ Nov $45 calls with 38× Vol/OI and massive floor volume (634K!) suggest institutional positioning for a Brazil rebound trade into year-end.
NVDA — Top Strikes by Volume
- $230C Aug 28 — 185,084 contracts (vol/OI 2.36×) — Bullish call buying pre-earnings
- $240C Aug 28 — 151,333 (vol/OI 2.49×) — Further OTM call demand
- $215C Aug 28 — 67,536 (closer to the money)
- By Open Interest: $180P Jan 27 — 146,592 OI (largest single NVDA position — long-dated put hedge)
- $220C Oct 16 — 109,288 OI
TSLA — Top Strikes by Volume
- $355C Aug 26 — 159,657 (vol/OI 50.65×) — Heavy near-term call buying
- $350P Aug 26 — 123,844 (vol/OI 45.67×) — Also heavy put buying — straddle?
- $360C Aug 26 — 121,572
- By OI: $990C Sep 18 — 41,929 OI (speculative lottery strike)
🌊 Whale Flow — Sweeps, Blocks & Dark Pool
Market-wide options flow (closing read): Net call premium closed at roughly +$51M with net put premium running at −$101M. The put premium exceeded call premium in absolute terms late in the session — institutions were buying protection into the close. That's not unusual the day before a major catalyst (NVDA), but it confirms the cautious undertone despite green indices.
Notable late flow alerts:
- SPY $535P Mar 2027 — RepeatedHits, 500 contracts, $175K premium (ask-side) — far OTM long-dated puts. Someone is tail-hedging a big move lower.
- SPY $790P Mar 2027 — 93 contracts, $385K premium (bid-side sell) — premium collection on deep OTM puts.
- SPY $728P Sep 2026 — $214K premium ask-side — 19 trades, clearly institutional accumulation of near-term puts.
- IWM $285P Sep 18 — Multiple alerts totaling >17,000 contracts, $1.5M+ combined premium. Persistent put buying in small-caps is the clearest institutional hedge in today's flow.
- SPXW $7,715C Aug 26 — 346 contracts, 43 trades, descending fill (selling) — $101K premium. Next-day call selling into strength.
- QQQ $710C Aug 25 — 990 contracts, $108K, RepeatedHits — expiry-day call accumulation at the money.
- TLT $84C Sep 18 — 2,000 contracts, $132K ask-side — positioning for bond rally (rate cut optionality).
Dark pool highlights (post-market, 20:30 ET):
- QSR — 68,241 shares @ $81.56, $5.57M premium — large block in Restaurant Brands.
- SLV — 15,000 shares @ $62.24, $933K — silver ETF accumulation in extended hours.
- NVDA — Multiple prints: 1,500 + 595 + 500 shares @ ~$213.84 — institutional positioning ahead of earnings.
- ZM — 4,000 shares across two prints @ ~$98 — accumulation at the $98 level.
- SOXL — 5,500 shares @ $117.05 across two prints — levered semiconductor ETF buying.
- SPY — Multiple prints totaling >3,400 shares @ $766.18–766.21 — steady institutional presence.
SPY — GEX by Strike (Key Levels)
The largest positive gamma (call gamma OI) clusters are at the $766 strike, confirmed by today's 1M+ contract volume on SPY $766C. The $765 and $760 strikes show large negative put gamma OI — dealers need to sell as price falls through those levels, amplifying moves lower. The $765–766 zone is the gamma pin for SPY right now. A close above keeps dealers long gamma (stabilizing). A break below $765 can accelerate selling.
SPY / QQQ — Put/Call Volume Ratio
SPY: 4.3M calls / 4.5M puts today — put/call ratio slightly above 1. Slightly bearish skew. QQQ: 3.96M calls / 3.1M puts — call volume dominated in Nasdaq ETF, consistent with tech leadership. IWM: 380K calls / 570K puts — heavy put bias in small-caps; the IWM $283–$285P Sep 18 whale flow confirms institutional hedging of small-cap exposure.
Mood summary: The market closed in the "Greed" zone at 58.8 — a week ago it was at 55. That's a meaningful sentiment shift upward. VIX at 15.45 is complacency territory. The danger: low VIX + elevated put buying late session + NVDA earnings tomorrow = classic setup for a volatility event. If NVDA disappoints, VIX could spike quickly from these low levels. If NVDA beats big, you could see a melt-up attempt Thursday morning. The market is not braced for either extreme — which means both can hit harder than expected.
⚡ Key Events — Wednesday August 26
| Time (ET) | Event | Estimate / Prev | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8:30 AM | Core PCE Price Index MoM (July) | Est: +0.2% / Prev: +0.1% | HIGH IMPACT. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Hot = rate hike fear spike. Cool = relief rally in growth. |
| 8:30 AM | Durable Goods Orders MoM (July) | Est: +0.7% / Prev: +0.3% | Capex signal. Miss here + hot PCE = double negative for equities. |
| 8:30 AM | Personal Income & Spending (July) | Income est: +0.2% / Spending: +0.2% | Consumer health check. Spending surprises matter. |
| 8:30 AM | PCE Price Index YoY (July) | Est: 3.6% / Prev: 3.7% | Year-over-year trend. A print above 3.7% would be alarming. |
| 11:00 AM | MBA Mortgage Applications (Aug 21) | Prev: −0.4% | Housing pulse check after today's terrible New Home Sales. |
| 2:30 PM | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | Est: +1.9M / Prev: +4.4M | Crude was massacred today. EIA number will set Wed energy tone. |
| 5:00 PM | 5-Year Note Auction | Prev: 4.408% | Treasury demand; rates watching. |
| After Close | NVDA Q2 FY2027 Earnings | EPS est: $2.13 / Rev: $93.6B | THE EVENT. Sets tone for entire AI/semiconductor complex Thursday. |
| After Close | CRM Q2 FY2027 Earnings | EPS est: $3.31 / Rev: $11.4B | Salesforce — AI software play. Watch guidance carefully. |
| After Close | HPQ Q3 FY2026 Earnings | EPS est: $0.66 / Rev: $14.4B | PC demand indicator. |
| Time TBD | BURL / Jackson Hole Symposium | — | Fed speaks at Jackson Hole — any surprise hawkish comments could move rates. |
Overnight Risk — Bull Case
- Core PCE prints at or below +0.2% — rate hike odds drop, growth stocks gap up
- NVDA beats big on revenue + guides above consensus — AI trade reignites across the complex
- CRM also beats — cloud/AI software confirms cycle is intact
- SPX reclaims 7,700 — psychological level unlocks more buying
Overnight Risk — Bear Case
- Core PCE prints hot (+0.3%+) — rate hike probability jumps toward 40%+, tech sells hard
- NVDA disappoints on guidance or data center revenue — AI trade unwinds violently from low VIX
- Crude continues lower — energy sector drags broad tape, risk-off signals intensify
- SPX breaks below $7,665 — losing the pre-PCE support level triggers technical sellers
Key Levels for Wednesday
Here's what today actually told us: the market wants to go higher, but it's not committing until it sees the NVDA number. You had six of eleven sectors advance, gold at a multi-month high, 10-year yields pulling back — all of that should be screaming "buy." Instead, the session closed with put premium running well above call premium in the final hour. That's institutions quietly buying protection while retail watches the green numbers. When the smart money is hedging into a green tape, you listen.
The crude collapse deserves its own paragraph. WTI down 5.47% in a single session when the SPR is already at a 44-year low is not a routine blip. That's a demand signal, and if WTI continues lower, energy's one-month outperformance evaporates fast. The XLE weekly chart just got a lot less friendly.
The one thing to watch tomorrow: Core PCE at 8:30, then NVDA at 4:05 PM. Those two prints will define the next five to ten trading sessions. Position size appropriately heading in. Don't let FOMO drive you into an oversized NVDA options position tonight — the implied move is priced, and both directions are on the table. Let the number come, let the first reaction settle, then act. Be the house, not the gambler.
What Today Means
- Tech and communication services led — the AI/growth trade is still the dominant narrative. It survives until NVDA either confirms or cracks it.
- Energy is rolling over — crude's 5.47% drop is a macro warning that demand may be softening. The sector's one-month outperformance is at risk. Treat XLE exposure with caution until crude stabilizes.
- Institutional put buying into the close is the single most important thing from today's options flow. The VIX is low, complacency is building, and the smart money was paying for protection. That combination — low VIX + elevated put buying + binary event — is a setup for volatility, not calm.
Overnight Watchlist — Bullish
- NVDA — The event. Pre-earnings dark pool prints at $213.84. $230C/$240C calls heavily positioned. Be patient, not early.
- SMTC — Beat 14.5% on EPS. Semiconductor demand resilient. Watch for sympathy lift in chip names if NVDA beats.
- Gold / GDX — Multi-month breakout. Hot PCE tomorrow could add fuel. IVR for gold miners is reasonable.
- EWZ — 634K floor contracts in Nov $41–$45 calls. Institutional Brazil bull trade. Worth watching for confirmation.
- NKE — Jefferies calling DKS sympathy dip an entry. If broad tape holds, NKE has a clean technical base near support.
Overnight Watchlist — Bearish / Avoid
- DKS — Down 30%+ today. Multiple PT cuts. Dead money until a stabilization base forms. Avoid new longs.
- XLE / crude-exposed names — WTI at $80.36 and falling. Watch API inventory tonight. If bearish crude, consider energy puts.
- SLQT — Revenue miss of ~$39M vs. estimate. Insurance distribution channel is stressed. Avoid until clarity on forward guidance.
- IWM / small-caps — Heavy institutional put buying in $283–$285P Sep 18 throughout the day. Whales are hedging small-cap exposure. Trade accordingly.
Three Takeaways Heading Into Wednesday
- Respect the binary event risk. NVDA after close tomorrow and Core PCE at 8:30 AM are both market-moving. Size positions to survive a wrong-way gap, not just to maximize the right-way gain. Probabilities over predictions — you don't know which way NVDA gaps.
- The put buying is telling you something. When indices close green but put premium dominates the final hour, institutions aren't buying the move. They're selling into it or hedging through it. Follow the money, not the headline number.
- Gold and copper are signaling inflation + demand simultaneously. Gold at a multi-month high with copper at a 52-week high is an unusual combination. It suggests inflation expectations are rising and industrial demand hasn't collapsed. Watch both as leading indicators for the Fed's next move.
Trade smart. Manage risk. Let the probabilities work for you.
— Michael Wade · MWTC Trade Club
- Post-market edition
- This report recaps the day that just closed and sets up overnight / next session. All index levels are official closing prices. After-hours earnings and dark pool data are from the 20:30 ET packet snapshot.
- Earnings verification standard
- Actuals (EPS / revenue / beat-miss) are only stated as fact when two independent sources agree (Finnhub + FMP). Single-source or conflicting names are flagged as "unconfirmed — verify on platform." Never trade actuals on unconfirmed data.
- Options flow (Market Tide)
- Net call / put premium is the running cumulative difference between ask-side and bid-side options premium throughout the session. Positive net call premium = buyers paying up for calls. Negative net put premium = buyers paying up for puts. Both can be true simultaneously (mixed flow).
- Vol/OI ratio
- Volume ÷ Open Interest for a specific contract. Ratios above ~5× indicate fresh positioning (not recycled OI). Ratios above 50× are exceptional — treat as a whale signal.
- GEX (Gamma Exposure)
- Measures how much market makers need to buy/sell the underlying to stay delta-neutral as price moves. Positive GEX = stabilizing force near that strike. Negative GEX (usually from puts) = can amplify moves lower.
- IV Rank / Percentile
- How expensive options are relative to the past year's range for that name. High rank = elevated premium; consider selling. Low rank = cheap options; consider buying defined-risk spreads.
- Color language
- Green = bullish / constructive · Red = bearish / avoid · Grey = neutral / watch · Amber = caution / event risk
- Sources
- yfinance (index, ETF, global closes) · Unusual Whales (options flow, dark pool, insider, analyst) · Finnhub + FMP (earnings two-source verification) · Kalshi (Fed prediction markets)