Pre-Market Report — Wednesday, August 26, 2026
🎯 60-Second Read — Pre-Market, August 26, 2026
- Bias: NEUTRAL-BULLISH Confidence 6/10. Futures are flat to slightly lower, but the macro data released this morning — GDP at 1.5%, Core PCE +0.2% M/M matching est., and personal income +0.4% (a beat) — removes near-term rate-shock risk and keeps the bull case intact. All four major index futures within −0.2% of fair value.
- Primary catalysts today: NVDA earnings after close is the single biggest macro event of the week — it sets the tone for AI/semis into month-end. Also watch: EIA crude data (14:30 ET), Fed Barkin speech (15:45 ET), 5-Year Note Auction (17:00 ET).
- Best opportunity: Tech (XLK +0.94% yesterday, +6.2% 1-mo) and Communication Services (XLC +0.77%) remain the leadership duo. Elevated IV in NVDA and CRM offers premium-selling setups after the earnings event clarifies direction.
- Biggest risk: NVDA disappoints on guidance — a miss would cascade through semis, AI-adjacent names, and broad tech. The options market is pricing a significant move; do not carry naked short gamma into the report.
- ⚠ Watch: Crude oil is down −2.55% pre-market on supply concerns; Energy (XLE) the weakest sector. ECB sources signal a September rate hike — a hawkish global re-pricing risk. Zelenskyy contacts show Ukraine/US peace talks active — geopolitical tail risk is live.
How to read: each dial is the estimated chance of an up move today for that index, a blend of trend, momentum and volatility. A lean, not a prediction; manage risk. Fear & Greed shows market mood.
Pre-market futures are essentially flat — the market is in a holding pattern ahead of NVDA earnings after the close. GDP printing in-line (1.5%) and Core PCE matching expectations removed a key macro overhang, explaining why futures didn't sell off on what is otherwise a growth-soft data set.
Ukraine–US Peace Contacts (Major): Zelenskyy confirmed Ukraine is now in active contact with the US to discuss paths to peace, with new military groupings led by commanders Prokopenko and Biletsky. Why it matters: Any credible ceasefire path would sharply reduce energy and defense risk premiums — bullish for broad risk, bearish for defense stocks and crude.
ECB September Rate Hike (Major): Reuters sources confirm the ECB is set to hike in September with no appetite to signal further moves. Why it matters: Another G7 central bank hiking adds to global tightening pressure. Watch EUR/USD and European bank equities; could pressure US long rates at the margin.
OpenAI Bans Russian ChatGPT Accounts: OpenAI removed accounts used in a Russian covert misinformation campaign. Why it matters: AI regulation / geopolitical tensions around AI remain a background risk for the sector — regulatory overhang is live heading into NVDA earnings.
Alibaba Releases Smaller Qwen AI Model: BABA unveiled a cost-efficient Qwen model, pressuring the narrative that AI compute demand is insatiable. Why it matters: Efficient smaller models are a structural headwind for the "more GPUs forever" thesis — monitor NVDA guidance commentary closely.
Key actuals already released pre-market. Source: structured calendar + macro.economic_news headlines.
| Time (ET) | Event | Est. | Actual | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 AM ✅ | MBA 30-Yr Mortgage Rate (Aug/21) | — | 6.78% | Slight tick up; housing still pressured |
| 11:00 AM ✅ | MBA Mortgage Applications (Aug/21) | — | −1.0% | Second consecutive weekly decline |
| 12:30 PM ✅ | GDP Q2 (2nd Est.) — High Impact | 1.5% | 1.5% | In-line; soft growth, no shock |
| 12:30 PM ✅ | Core PCE Price Index M/M (Jul) — High | 0.2% | 0.2% | Matches est.; Fed-friendly |
| 12:30 PM ✅ | PCE Price Index Y/Y (Jul) | 3.6% | 3.7% | Slightly above est.; sticky headline inflation |
| 12:30 PM ✅ | Personal Income M/M (Jul) — High | 0.2% | 0.4% | Beat — consumer resilience positive |
| 12:30 PM ✅ | Personal Spending M/M (Jul) | 0.2% | 0.2% | In-line; spending tempered vs income |
| 12:30 PM ✅ | Durable Goods Orders M/M (Jul) | 0.5% | 1.1% | Beat; capex signals decent |
| 12:30 PM ✅ | Corporate Profits Q/Q (Q2) | 0.7% | 8.2% | Massive beat — strong earnings backdrop |
| 14:30 PM | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Aug/21) | 0.6M | awaiting | Est. small build; bearish if large |
| 14:30 PM | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change (Aug/21) | −0.7M | awaiting | Draw expected; watch energy complex |
| 15:45 PM | Fed Barkin Speech — Medium Impact | — | awaiting | Watch for rate path commentary |
| 17:00 PM | 5-Year Note Auction | prev. 4.408% | awaiting | Tail / bid-to-cover will move rates |
✅ = actual available pre-market from released data. Source: macro.economic_calendar + macro.economic_news.
Current stance: Fed is on hold (no rate change at the last meeting). Today's Core PCE print of +0.2% M/M matched consensus — this is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, and a match keeps the door open for an eventual cut but removes urgency. The GDP print of 1.5% annualized confirms the economy is slowing but not collapsing. Short-term interest-rate futures trimmed gains slightly after this data, per headlines. Jackson Hole (symposium on the calendar through Aug 27) is the policy communication forum to watch.
Next meeting: September 16, 2026. The Kalshi prediction market gives these odds for that decision:
Key takeaway: Markets are split between hold (66%) and hike (32%). That's not a comfortable split — any hawkish Fed speaker today could reprice the 32% hike odds higher. Watch Barkin at 15:45 ET. A hold consensus would be equity-positive; a hawkish lean pushes pressure onto growth names.
Earnings are dual-source verified (Finnhub + FMP). Unconfirmed names are labeled — do not assume their date or actuals. See verification note below each group.
✅ Already Reported Today (Verified)
| Symbol | Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise | Rev. Est. | Rev. Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJM | Q1 FY2027 | $2.22 | $3.24 | +45.8% | $2.14B | $2.22B | BEAT |
| DY | Q2 FY2027 | $4.82 | $5.29 | +9.7% | $2.04B | $2.01B | EPS BEAT |
| DCI | Q4 FY2026 | $1.14 | $1.15 | +1.3% | $1.05B | $1.06B | BEAT |
| PLAB | Q3 FY2026 | $0.41 | $0.50 | +21.5% | $213M | $216M | BEAT |
| SFL | Q2 FY2026 | $0.09 | $0.23 | +167.8% | $175M | $201M | MASSIVE BEAT |
| MOV | Q2 FY2027 | $0.36 | $0.54 | +51.7% | $166M | $170M | BEAT |
🕐 Reporting After Close Today (Verified)
| Symbol | Quarter | EPS Est. | Rev Est. | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | Q2 FY2027 | $2.13 | $93.6B | After Close ⚡ |
| CRM | Q2 FY2027 | $3.31 | $11.4B | After Close |
| CRWD | Q2 FY2027 | $0.30 | $1.47B | After Close |
| HPQ | Q3 FY2026 | $0.66 | $14.4B | After Close |
| SNPS | Q3 FY2026 | $3.74 | $2.49B | After Close |
| VEEV | Q2 FY2027 | $2.27 | $923M | After Close |
| OKTA | Q2 FY2027 | $0.98 | $809M | After Close |
| NTNX | Q4 FY2026 | $0.50 | $753M | After Close |
| A | Q3 FY2026 | $1.52 | $1.88B | After Close |
| URBN | Q2 FY2027 | $1.76 | $1.68B | After Close |
| P | Q2 FY2027 | $0.59 | $1.12B | After Close |
| PAHC | Q4 FY2026 | $0.73 | $389M | After Close |
| LTRX | Q4 FY2026 | $0.04 | $31M | After Close |
| OOMA | Q2 FY2027 | $0.34 | $83M | After Close |
| AVNW | Q4 FY2026 | $0.56 | $112M | Time TBD |
| GASS | Q2 FY2026 | $0.54 | $46M | Time TBD |
| GEG | Q4 FY2026 | $0.20 | — | Time TBD |
| GLMD | Q2 FY2026 | −$0.40 | — | Time TBD |
⚠ Unconfirmed — Verify Before Trading
The following names appeared in our feed but have conflicting dates or single-source data. Do not assume a report date or act on these without independent verification on the company's IR page or your broker platform.
- BURL — Finnhub says Aug 26, FMP says Aug 27. Date conflict — verify on platform.
- BBWI — Reported-status conflict between sources. Withhold actuals — verify on platform.
- WOOF — Finnhub says Aug 26, FMP says Sep 2. Date conflict — verify on platform.
- OLLI — Finnhub says Aug 26, FMP says Sep 2. Date conflict — verify on platform.
- NAT — Finnhub says Aug 26, FMP says Aug 27. Date conflict — verify on platform.
- VSXY, GMS, AFYA, FOCL — Single source only. Treat as unconfirmed — verify on platform.
📅 On Deck This Week (Verified)
| Symbol | Date | When | EPS Est. | Rev Est. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DG | Aug 27 | Before Open | $2.06 | $11.5B |
| BBY | Aug 27 | Before Open | $1.35 | $9.6B |
| BILI | Aug 27 | Before Open | $1.54 | $8.1B |
| MDT | Sep 1 | Before Open | $1.40 | $9.6B |
| NIO | Sep 1 | Before Open | −$0.21 | $33.8B |
| HPE | Sep 2 | After Close | $0.93 | $12.0B |
| AVGO | Sep 2 | After Close | $3.30 | $29.9B |
GDP Q2 came in at 1.5% (in-line): Growth is decelerating from Q1's 2.1% but landed exactly where expected. Corporate Profits Q/Q surged +8.2% vs est. 0.7% — a massive earnings-backdrop positive that the market may not have fully priced.
Core PCE +0.2% M/M (in-line): The Fed's preferred inflation gauge matched. Removes rate-shock risk; short-term rate futures trimmed gains modestly post-data, per headlines — meaning the market sees this as "not hawkish enough to price out a hike" rather than "all clear." The 32% September hike odds on Kalshi remain elevated.
NVDA dark-pool prints & unusual options activity: Multiple large dark-pool prints in NVDA at $213.69 with combined size in the thousands of shares were recorded overnight. NVDA call IV ranks at 76th percentile — premium sellers are getting paid to wait for direction, but gamma (rate of change of delta) is extremely elevated this close to earnings. This is a defined-risk event, not a wing-it night.
Alibaba releases smaller Qwen AI model ($BABA): The efficiency narrative in AI models is accelerating. Smaller, cheaper models reduce the "GPU arms race" urgency. NVDA guidance on data center demand will be interpreted through this lens tonight.
Dow steady, Nvidia & inflation in focus (Investors.com): Broad market tone is wait-and-see ahead of NVDA. Dow outperforming marginally as defensives/cyclicals catch a bid while tech holds flat.
Gold near 3-month high ahead of US inflation data (Reuters): Gold extended to $4,674 — geopolitical bid (Ukraine) and sticky inflation keeping safe-haven demand. Not yet a "risk-off" scream, but worth monitoring as a leading indicator.
Ranked by combined 1-day and 1-month performance. Sector ETF data from prior close.
Source: SPDR sector ETFs (XLK, XLC, XLV, XLY, XLB, XLRE, XLF, XLU, XLI, XLP, XLE). 1-day and 1-month combined scoring.
▲ Dials show a synthesized directional bias for the today on a -100 (extreme bearish) → +100 (extreme bullish) scale (trend, momentum, price-vs-MA, dampened by volatility). A lean, not a prediction.
S&P 500 (SPX / SPY $765.91)
Trend: Up. Price 7,677 sits above both its 20-DMA (7,669) and 50-DMA (7,551) — bullish stack. RSI 44.6 — room to run without being overbought. Support: 7,581 (pivot) / 7,363. Resistance: 7,798 (swing high, key level) / 7,895. The 60-day swing low at 7,267 is the bull market invalidation level. Futures are essentially at fair value — open is neutral.
Nasdaq Composite (QQQ $710.72)
Trend: Up but testing. Price 26,151 is below its 20-DMA (26,183) — a minor caution — but above the 50-DMA (25,959). RSI 45.3. Support: 25,896 (pivot) / 24,698. Resistance: 27,093 (swing high) / 27,349. NVDA earnings tonight could easily push QQQ ±2% off these levels — treat support/resistance as provisional until 5 PM ET.
Dow Jones (DIA $535.24)
Trend: Up. Price 53,577 above both MAs. RSI 37.5 — notably lower, suggesting Dow is the least overbought of the four. Support: 52,615 (pivot) / 50,881. Resistance: 54,349 (swing high) / 55,311. Dow futures +0.14% pre-market — modest outperformer today. Defensives and value names providing ballast while tech digests.
Russell 2000 (IWM $299.23)
Trend: Up — but lagging. Price 3,010 essentially at its 20-DMA (3,010) and above 50-DMA (2,989). RSI 48.4. Support: 2,971 (pivot) / 2,873. Resistance: 3,068 (swing high) / 3,108. Small-caps are the marginal tell for risk appetite — they need to hold above 2,971 for the bull case to remain intact. Watch IWM put flow; it was very heavy yesterday (1.5M+ contracts on IWM 283–285 puts for Sep 18).
Data from yesterday's session (Aug 25). Universe note: IV ranks are across a scanned set of 40 liquid optionable names — not the full market.
a) Elevated IV — Rich Premium / Premium-Sell Candidates (post-event)
| Ticker | IV Percentile | Note |
|---|---|---|
| CRM | 87.3 | Reports tonight — do NOT sell premium pre-event; watch for vol crush opportunity post-report |
| NVDA | 76.3 | Earnings tonight — highest-profile event; IV (implied volatility — options market's expected move) is near annual highs |
| ADBE | 72.8 | Elevated without near-term catalyst — potential premium-sell candidate |
| XLE | 59.1 | Energy ETF IV elevated; crude down 2.5% — put sellers be careful |
| MSTR | 56.0 | Bitcoin-correlated vol; BTC consolidating |
| QCOM | 47.1 | Moderately elevated — no obvious catalyst |
| NFLX | 44.1 | Elevated vs history; potential credit spread opportunity |
| SMCI | 42.7 | AI-adjacent vol; watch NVDA reaction |
| TLT | 40.8 | Bond ETF vol elevated ahead of auctions and Fed speakers |
| META | 38.2 | Moderately elevated; no near-term earnings |
a) Low IV — Cheap Premium / Buy-Vol Candidates
| Ticker | IV Percentile | Note |
|---|---|---|
| MU | 9.8 | Semis with lowest vol in the universe — cheap long options ahead of NVDA catalyst |
| LLY | 10.0 | Pharma giant — cheap vol; debit spreads attractive |
| BA | 10.9 | Boeing — surprisingly cheap IV; watch |
| JPM | 12.9 | Financial bellwether — low vol; macro event risk underpriced? |
| IWM | 12.9 | Small-cap ETF — cheap relative to actual put flow; consider long puts as hedge |
| SMH | 13.9 | Semis ETF — cheap; NVDA could spike this tonight |
| COST | 14.1 | Defensive compounder — low vol, no near-term catalyst |
| MSFT | 15.1 | Mega-cap tech with cheap vol — debit spreads attractive |
| AMZN | 15.7 | AWS / AI growth name with cheap vol |
| AMD | 15.8 | Semi rival to NVDA — cheap vol ahead of NVDA catalyst; long calls cheap |
b) Unusual Volume & OI — Notable Contracts
Volume greater than OI = fresh positioning (new money entering). All from Aug 25 session.
| Ticker | Strike/Expiry/Type | Volume | OI | Vol/OI | Premium | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $765 P / Aug 25 | 999,312 | 4,800 | 208× | $52.2M | Massive fresh put positioning — same-day expiry; likely hedges unwound EOD |
| QQQ | $711 C / Aug 25 | 757,952 | 3,078 | 246× | $44.5M | Huge fresh call volume — day-trade momentum |
| QQQ | $709 P / Aug 25 | 537,900 | 2,196 | 245× | $32.4M | Large fresh put positioning — same-day |
| SPXW | $7,670 P / Aug 25 | 186,119 | 750 | 248× | $79.9M | Major downside hedge in index options |
| SPXW | $7,670 C / Aug 25 | 186,349 | 1,445 | 129× | $95.0M | Matching call volume — straddle-like positioning at ATM |
| NVDA | $230 C / Aug 28 | 185,062 | 78,303 | 2.36× | $23.6M | Large existing OI — most active NVDA strike; earns tonight |
| TSLA | $355 C / Aug 26 | 159,641 | 3,152 | 51× | $46.1M | Fresh bullish positioning in TSLA for today's expiry |
| TSLA | $350 P / Aug 26 | 123,739 | 2,712 | 46× | $32.7M | Matched put hedge — both sides active in TSLA |
| IWM | $285 P / Sep 18 | 47,271 | 94,356 | 0.50× | $760K | Massive put OI — institutional hedge book; 5,000-lot block vs ascending fill |
| EWZ | $45 C / Nov 20 | 669,588 | 17,517 | 38× | $26.4M | Large fresh Brazil ETF call — macro or EM rotation bet |
c) Busiest Strikes by Major Name
| Ticker | Highest-Volume Strike | Volume | Highest-OI Strike | OI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | $230 C Aug 28 | 185,084 | $180 P Jan 27 | 146,592 |
| AAPL | $312.50 C Aug 26 | 63,972 | $360 C Oct 16 | 81,287 |
| TSLA | $355 C Aug 26 | 159,657 | $990 C Sep 18 | 41,929 |
| MU | $950 C Aug 26 | 19,930 | $1,000 C Sep 18 | 9,865 |
| AMD | $500 C Aug 28 | 16,458 | $400 P Sep 4 | 17,221 |
| META | $590 C Aug 26 | 30,975 | $750 C Jan 27 | 257,211 |
| SPY | $766 C Aug 25 | 1,021,341 | $710 P Sep 18 | 60,371 |
| QQQ | $711 C Aug 25 | 757,952 | $700 P Sep 18 | 106,642 |
d) Whale Flow — Biggest Sweeps/Blocks & Dark Pool
Key SPY put flow: Multiple large SPY put blocks on Sep 18 expirations ($728, $730, $726 strikes) totaling over $1.6M in premium, all on the ask side — institutional downside hedging is active. The $535 SPY put for Mar 2027 had a $175K block paid on the ask — a longer-dated hedge.
Key SPY call flow: $785 SPY call Oct 16 ($182K ask-side) and $790 call Mar 27 ($385K bid-side) — some upside positioning out to Q1 2027.
IWM put dominance: IWM $283–285 Sep 18 puts saw combined flow exceeding $2.4M in premium across multiple large blocks — the single most concentrated bearish institutional bet in the ETF complex yesterday. 11,640-lot descending fill (ascending fill) in IWM $283P is a clear whale print.
SPXW straddle at 7,670–7,675: Matching massive call and put volume at near-ATM SPX strikes — dealer positioning for the NVDA-event volatility expansion tonight.
QQQ $713 C Aug 26 (today's expiry): $161K in fresh call premium, 870-lot, 24× vol/OI — a directional bullish bet for today's session. Execution was on the bid side — likely a closing or hedge roll, not fresh long.
TLT $84 C Sep 18: $132K ask-side — institutional bet on a rate decline (bond prices up) by mid-September. Kalshi's 32% hike odds make this a contrarian position.
Notable dark-pool prints (overnight): NVDA — multiple prints at $213.68–$213.69, combined ~8,000 shares (~$1.7M); MU — cluster at $930.10, combined ~1,400 shares (~$1.3M); AMD — 760 shares at ~$479.90; AMZN — 1,200 shares at ~$260.52. These are orderly extended-hours prints, not panic.
e) GEX / Dealer Positioning
SPY GEX: Large positive gamma at $200, $250, and $300 strikes (long-dated) acting as gravitational anchors. Near-term gamma is concentrated at the $765–$766 zone (yesterday's close level) — dealers are hedging both sides, which means SPY can move quickly if it breaks through these levels. The $535 put for Sep 18 shows dealer short-put positioning that reinforces a "don't let SPY collapse" bid.
IWM GEX: Major positive gamma concentration at the $200, $210, $215, $220, and $225 strikes — these are structural support levels. The $220 strike has the largest gamma of any IWM strike (4.37M units) — below this level, dealer hedging becomes destabilizing. IWM at $299 is currently between its $295 and $300 gamma concentration zones — a neutral-to-supportive posture.
Put/Call ratios (yesterday): SPY avg 30-day call vol 5.57M vs put vol 6.45M — puts dominate by 15%, consistent with institutional hedge posture. QQQ avg 30-day call 3.79M vs put 4.01M — roughly balanced. IWM avg 30-day call 550K vs put 1.01M — puts nearly 2× calls — strong bearish bias in small-caps from institutional buyers.
Breadth read: 8/11 sectors above 50-DMA and 9/11 above 200-DMA is a healthy bull-market breadth signature. The leadership is concentrated in Tech and Comm Services — a narrow but not yet dangerously narrow advance. Energy's −1.66% yesterday on crude weakness is the key outlier. If breadth expands beyond Tech/Comm today (e.g., Industrials, Financials participating), that's a bullish signal. If only Tech rallies post-NVDA, that's narrowing leadership — watch it.
Source: SPDR sector ETF proxy (11 sectors). Full S&P 500 stock-level breadth unavailable in current feed.
| Ticker | Setup / Reason | Key Level | Event Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | Earns tonight. IV at 76th percentile. Dark-pool prints overnight at $213.69. Massive options open interest at $230C. The trade of the week — defined-risk only. | Support $213 / Resistance $230 | ⚡ Earns Aug 26 AMC |
| CRM | Earns tonight. IV at 87th percentile (highest in universe). Post-earnings vol crush opportunity for premium sellers after the report prints. | Watch for gap fill setup post-report | ⚡ Earns Aug 26 AMC |
| AMD | IV at 15.8th percentile — cheapest vol in semis. An NVDA beat tonight lifts all AI chips. Long calls cheap relative to historical vol. Levered NVDA play. | Support $479 / Resistance $500 | NVDA read-through tonight |
| MU | IV at 9.8th — cheapest in the scanned universe. Memory chips benefit from AI demand. Heavy call activity at $950 Aug 26. Cheap options ahead of sector catalyst. | $930 support / $1,000 key resistance | Sector read-through |
| CRWD | Earns tonight. Cybersecurity leadership. IV moderately elevated — watch for post-earnings momentum trade if beat. | Prior high resistance level | ⚡ Earns Aug 26 AMC |
| SJM | Already reported a massive beat (+45.8% EPS surprise). Gap-up watch. Consumer Staples otherwise weak — this is a stock-specific win. | Look for gap-hold above prior close | Reported this morning |
| SFL | Reported +167.8% EPS surprise — massive beat. Shipping sector outlier. Small float, could gap significantly. | Watch for momentum continuation | Reported this morning |
| DKS | Dick's Sporting Goods down −31% pre-market. Multiple analyst PT cuts (BTIG, Guggenheim, UBS). Gap-and-fade or dead-cat bounce trade — high vol, high risk. | $124 area — watch for stabilization | Reported earnings miss |
| XLE | Energy ETF −1.66% yesterday, crude down another −2.55% pre-market. IV at 59th percentile. Potential short or put spread if crude doesn't find support. | $62.06 support — below starts new leg | EIA data 14:30 ET |
| IWM | Massive institutional put flow ($285P, $283P Sep 18) — smart money hedging small-caps. IWM at $299 near key GEX levels. Watch for break below $295 as bear signal. | $295 key / $300 resistance | No direct catalyst |
| TLT | Bond ETF IV at 40.8th percentile. $84 call bought on ask (Sep 18). Barkin speech (15:45) and 5-Year auction (17:00) are rate catalysts. A hawkish lean sends TLT lower. | $83.46 current / $84 resistance | Barkin 15:45, Auction 17:00 |
| META | IV at 38.2nd percentile — modestly elevated. $750C Jan 27 has 257K OI (largest in the universe by far). Long-dated institutional bulls are positioned. Near-term catalyst unclear. | Support $570 / Resistance $590 | No near-term earnings |
Optionable stocks only (pre-filtered). Note: DKS is the major story this morning.
Gainers
- PMI Picard Medical +86.2% Momentum continuation — verify catalyst before chasing
- JEM 707 Cayman Holdings +77.9% Thin float / low-float squeeze — extreme risk
- AMIX Autonomix Medical +33.9% Biotech momentum
- BRNX BrenX +33.0% Small-cap squeeze — high risk, low float
- ZSTK Flora Growth +27.9% Speculative momentum
- NIPG NIP Group +26.0% Gaming sector — watch for continuation or gap fade
- EXOD Exodus Movement +23.4% Crypto-adjacent — BTC flat, so company-specific
- CAPR Capricor Therapeutics +21.9% Biotech — verify catalyst; gap-fade risk is high
- CRML Critical Metals +21.4% Materials speculative name — copper at 52w high helps
- RYOJ rYojbaba +20.8% Very thin float — do not chase without catalyst confirmation
Losers
- DKS DICK'S Sporting Goods −30.7% Earnings miss — multiple PT cuts. Gap-fade or dead-cat bounce watch; not for beginners
- SDOT Sadot Group −29.4% Earnings/news related — verify before trading
- SCTX Scribe Therapeutics −16.2% Biotech sell-off — clinical or partnership news likely
- XPON Expion360 −15.0% Small-cap — high risk, verify catalyst
- NXTT Next Technology Holding −13.2% Speculative — avoid without clear catalyst
- ELAB PMGC Holdings −12.7% Very small-cap — high gap-fill risk both ways
- UUU Universal Safety Products −11.8% Low-float — extreme volatility, not for directional plays
| Ticker | Firm | Action | Rating | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZM | RBC Capital | Hold | Outperform | Decent Q2 results; PT maintained |
| ZM | Bernstein | PT raise | Market Perform | PT $108 (from $103) |
| ORCL | Citigroup | Catalyst watch | Buy | "Upside 90-day catalyst watch" after selloff — bullish signal |
| INTU | Oppenheimer | PT cut | Outperform | PT $380 (from $406) |
| INTU | Piper Sandler | PT raise | Underweight | PT $290 (from $250) — still underweight despite raise |
| DKS | BTIG | PT cut | Buy | PT $180 (from $300) — massive cut on earnings miss |
| DKS | Guggenheim | Hold | Neutral | Reiterates Neutral |
| DELL | UBS | PT raise | Neutral | PT $455 (from $440) |
| SNOW | Citigroup | PT raise | Buy | PT $395 (from $320) — significant raise; bullish on AI data platform narrative |
| CHWY | Morgan Stanley | PT cut | Overweight | PT $37 (from $42) — cut but still Overweight |
| JAZZ | Needham | PT raise | Buy | PT $310 (from $292) |
| ARGX | Wells Fargo | PT raise | Overweight | PT $1,415 (from $1,350) |
| EVMN | Needham | Initiate | Buy | New coverage — watch for momentum |
| WT | Oppenheimer | PT raise | Outperform | PT $27 (from $22) |
ORCL Citi catalyst watch and SNOW PT raise (+24%) are the standout bullish calls. DKS multiple PT cuts confirm the sell-off is justified. INTU mixed — Oppenheimer cuts, Piper raises from Underweight.
| Ticker | Insider | Role | Action | Shares | Price | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVM | Kersten Geert (CEO) | CEO / Director | BUY | 100,000 | $1.38 | CEO buying $138K — strong conviction buy in biotech; watch for catalyst |
| PRE | Rosin Brian (CFO) | CFO | BUY | 18,000 + 5,100 | $21.19 / $22.80 | CFO accumulated $520K over two days — meaningful insider confidence |
| FTCI | Carroll Anthony (CEO) | CEO | BUY | 24,745 | $2.08 | Tech CEO buying small-cap; open-market purchase is constructive |
| MAIA | Guerrero Ramiro | Director | BUY | 1,794 | $1.33 | Healthcare director adding at low price — watch for catalyst |
| ZIM | Multiple Officers | CFO, President, CIO | SELL | ~64K combined | $28.57–$28.83 | Three C-suite officers selling on same day; stock near-term caution |
| BULL | Denier Anthony (President) | President / Director | SELL | 53,848 | $8.83 | Pre-planned 10b5-1 sale — planned, but worth noting at current levels |
| ATRC | Dahlquist Karl (CLO) | Chief Legal Officer | SELL | 9,370 | $48.89 | Legal officer sale — routine but monitor size |
Open-market buys by CEOs and CFOs carry the strongest signal. CVM CEO 100K share purchase and PRE CFO $500K+ accumulation are the two standouts. ZIM triple-officer sale warrants caution on that name.
Crude Oil (WTI $80.26, −2.55%): The standout macro move. Supply overhang concerns are pressuring energy hard. The previous session saw XLE down −1.66% and crude is down another leg this morning. EIA data at 14:30 ET is the key catalyst. API last week showed a +4.2M build — if EIA confirms a build, crude tests $78–$79. If a draw, watch for a reversal. Energy sector is the clearest avoid today until data clears.
Gold ($4,674, +0.78%): Touching a 3-month high per Reuters headlines. The bid is geopolitical (Ukraine contacts, ECB hiking, global uncertainty) plus sticky US inflation. Not yet "risk-off panic" — more of a slow safe-haven accumulation. Watch the $4,638 prior close as support; a break above $4,700 would be a clean breakout signal.
Nat Gas ($2.88, +4.01%): The energy sub-sector with bullish momentum vs crude's weakness. Seasonal demand and supply tightness. Within the 52w range ($2.52–$3.34) — room to run but not a stretch.
Copper ($6.79, +1.17%): At its 52-week high — this is a constructive global growth signal. China's Shanghai composite +0.59% and Hang Seng +0.56% support this read. Copper at highs = industrials and materials have a macro tailwind.
DXY (98.98, flat): Dollar is a non-event today. Mid-range, stable. Not a headwind for risk assets or commodities. EUR/USD flat at 1.17; GBP/USD −0.18% — minor moves only.
Bitcoin ($78,214, −0.45%): Consolidating near the top of its 52w range ($58.6k–$82.1k). Not breaking out, not selling off. Ethereum (+0.51%) slightly outperforming. Crypto is a risk-on indicator that is neutral right now.
Sentiment read: Fear & Greed at 59 (greed) combined with VIX at 15.62 (complacency) is a classic "too comfortable before an event" setup. The market is not panicking, but it's not fearful enough given the NVDA binary event tonight. This is exactly the environment where defined-risk trades — limited downside, defined upside — outperform leveraged directional bets. Be the house. Sell premium or use spreads; don't naked-long NVDA into this print.
AAII data not available in this feed — check weekly survey separately for retail sentiment.
Bull Case
NVDA guides higher on data center demand, AI capex remains robust. Futures gap up 1–2%, Tech/Semis lead. SPX breaks above 7,799 (swing high) with a target run toward 7,895. QQQ clears 27,093. IWM participates above $300 — confirms broad rally, not just mega-cap bid.
What confirms it: Pre-market NVDA guidance leak in after-hours; DXY stays flat; 10Y holds below 4.7%; Barkin is dovish at 15:45 ET.
Bear Case
NVDA misses on revenue or guides conservatively, especially citing efficient AI models (Alibaba Qwen narrative). NQ drops 2–4%. SPX tests 7,581 (pivot support). IWM breaks below $295. Crude doesn't recover on EIA data, Energy pulls broader market. Barkin is hawkish — hike odds reprice to 40%+.
What confirms it: NVDA options pricing a 7–10% move; if stock gaps down 5%+ in after-hours, the next morning's open is likely a sell-the-news gap lower in QQQ and SMH.
Key Levels
Defined-Risk Ideas Today (Not Recommendations — Illustrative)
- NVDA post-earnings vol crush: After the report prints, IV drops sharply. If NVDA is flat or up small, selling a short-dated iron condor (e.g., Aug 28 $205/$210 put spread vs $230/$235 call spread) captures the vol crush. Wait for the actual print — don't sell pre-event.
- AMD long call cheap vol play: AMD at IV 15.8th percentile — a Sep 5 $490/$510 call debit spread costs relatively little and gives defined upside on an NVDA beat. Risk = premium paid only.
- IWM protective put or bear spread: Given 2:1 put/call ratio and massive institutional $285P / $283P OI in IWM Sep 18, a $295/$285 put debit spread in IWM is a cheap hedge or directional bear play if macro deteriorates. Risk = premium paid.
- TLT directional watch: Barkin at 15:45 and auction at 17:00. If Barkin is hawkish, TLT likely drops. Small Sep 18 $83/$80 put spread is a defined-risk rate-hike hedge. If dovish, TLT reverses and the $84 calls that whales bought on the ask become profitable.
- DKS gap — avoid or wait: −31% gap is not a setup for most traders. If you must: wait for first 30–45 minutes of trading, let the gap stabilize, then assess if there's a base forming for a dead-cat bounce. Use very small size. Do not buy into a falling knife pre-market.
⚠ Invalidation / Risk Management
The entire bull case tonight rests on NVDA. If NVDA disappoints, the session thesis flips — Tech becomes a sell, AI names give back recent gains, and broad market likely opens down 1–2% Thursday. Do not size up into NVDA earnings expecting a beat. Define your risk tonight before you go to sleep. A position that can survive a −10% NVDA gap down is acceptable; a position that blows up your account if NVDA drops −8% is not.
Secondary invalidation: Barkin hawks out at 15:45 → re-prices September hike odds from 32% to 40%+ → 10Y presses toward 4.74% → growth stocks sell. Watch for this intraday.
Here's what actually matters today: you've got one event that overshadows everything else on the board — NVDA reports after the close. Every other number, every other setup, every other catalyst is secondary noise until that print hits. The data this morning was decent. GDP in-line, Core PCE matched, personal income beat. Nothing there that changes the Fed's hand or breaks the market. The backdrop is fine. The question is whether NVDA's guidance confirms the AI capex supercycle or starts to show signs of demand normalization. Either way, you don't want to be a hero going into that print with oversized risk.
The mindset today is patience and preparation. Set your levels. Know what you own. Know what you'll do if NVDA is up 10% after-hours versus down 10%. If you don't have a plan for both outcomes, you're gambling, not trading. The fear and greed index is at 59 — greed territory — and VIX is at 15. The market is not worried. Markets that aren't worried can move very fast when they get surprised. Don't let complacency become your enemy.
The one setup I'm watching most closely isn't NVDA directly — it's AMD. IV at the 15th percentile is telling you the options market isn't pricing in the NVDA read-through risk. A call spread on AMD into tomorrow costs almost nothing relative to the upside if NVDA beats big and the whole semi sector rallies. That's the kind of asymmetric, defined-risk trade that makes sense in this environment. Be the house, not the gambler. Let the probabilities work for you.
— Michael Wade, MWTC Trade Club
3 Takeaways Going Into Today
- The macro is fine — NVDA is the only variable that matters tonight. GDP, PCE, personal income all printed in-line or better. The Fed is on hold. The backdrop supports equities. The one unknown is NVDA guidance — everything else is secondary until 5 PM ET.
- Size down, define your risk, and have a plan for both outcomes before the close. VIX at 15 and Fear&Greed at 59 says the market is not scared. Unscared markets move fast when surprised. Know your max loss. Do not let tonight's event be a stress test on your account.
- Look for asymmetric, defined-risk setups — not binary bets. AMD at IV 15th percentile, IWM put spreads for portfolio hedging, and post-NVDA vol crush strategies on CRM/SNPS are examples. Be the house. Trade the probabilities, not the emotions.
Trade smart. Manage risk. Let the probabilities work for you.
- Pre-market edition
- This report is prepared before the 9:30 AM ET open. All prices, futures, and levels reflect pre-market conditions. Verify live prices before any trade.
- IV Percentile (IV rank)
- Where current implied volatility (the options market's expected move size) sits relative to its own 1-year range. High = expensive options; Low = cheap options.
- Vol/OI ratio
- Volume divided by open interest (existing contracts). A ratio greater than 1 means more contracts traded today than existed yesterday — fresh positioning, not just rolling.
- Dark-pool prints
- Off-exchange block trades reported to FINRA TRF. Large prints signal institutional positioning but direction is ambiguous without additional context.
- GEX (Gamma Exposure)
- The net option gamma held by dealers at a given strike. High positive GEX = dealers hedge by buying as price rises / selling as price falls = stabilizing force. Negative GEX = destabilizing.
- Defined-risk trades
- Options structures (spreads, iron condors) where maximum loss is known and limited at entry. Preferred over naked directional bets, especially around earnings.
- Color language
- Green = bullish/long · Red = bearish/short-or-avoid · Amber = caution/watch · Grey = neutral.
- Verified vs Unconfirmed (earnings)
- Verified = both Finnhub and FMP agree on date and reported status. Unconfirmed = sources conflict or single-source only. Never trade an earnings date based on unconfirmed data.